National: Jharkhand will soon vote for its fifth assembly election since the state was created in 2000. No single party has been able to win a majority on its own in previous assembly elections. The BJP is making an all-out effort to win over the state's tribal voters so as to defeat the JMM (Jharkhand Mukti Morcha)-led INDIA alliance in the elections to be held in two rounds, on November 13 and 20.  The results will be declared on November 23 along with Maharashtra results.

In the 2019 Jharkhand election, the JMM-Congress-RJD alliance won 47 out of 81 seats and the JMM emerged as the single largest party with 30 seats. The BJP had to settle for only 25 seats, despite securing the highest vote share among parties.

The key battle in the state is for the tribal vote. According to the 2011 census, tribals account for around 26 per cent of Jharkhand's population, with 28 reserved ST (Scheduled Tribes) seats out of the total assembly strength of 81. However, this population is not distributed uniformly in the state.

The tribal-dominated South Chotanagpur region in Jharkhand has 15 seats spread across five districts - Ranchi, Khunti, Gumla, Simdega, Lohardaga - of which 11 are reserved for the STs.

Reasons for BJP's poor show

Jharkhand has been a BJP stronghold for long; the party ruled the state for 13 of the 24 years of its existence. Former BJP chief minister Raghubar Das was the only one to have lasted a full term from 2014 to 2019. But he couldn't capitalise on it. The 2019 assembly debacle was tough to digest for the BJP central leadership, which had backed Das. He even lost his own Jamshedpur East seat. It was a decisive defeat, ascribed to anti-incumbency, bad decisions and misgovernance.

In 2016-2017, the Raghubar Das ministry sought to amend the Chotanagpur Tenancy Act, 1908 and the Santhal Pargana Tenancy Act, 1949. The two laws were enacted as a safeguard for tribals' rights to their land. The proposed amendments would have made tribal land transferable for industrial and 'development' purposes. The tribals strongly opposed the amendments through the Pathalgadi movement. The Das-led government, in August 2017, withdrew the bills that would have amended the two Acts.

Raghubar Das also battled a strong perception of being "arrogant" and "high-handed" in a way that upset not just bureaucrats but his own party leaders. Tribals, who form a prominent vote base, felt alienated too.

In 2019, the BJP could win only two of the state's 28 ST seats. The then Babulal Marandi-led Jharkhand Vikas Morcha (Prajatantrik), which later merged with the BJP, managed one seat.

"The tribals voted against the BJP because they thought the government was trying to grab their land and sell it to outsiders, mainly people from the business community. This provoked tribal sentiments," says Pradeep Singh, a Ranchi-based senior journalist.

Realising the significance of the tribal vote, the BJP in 2023 appointed as its Jharkhand chief former chief minister Babulal Marandi - a Santhal like JMM's Hemant Soren.

How JMM fared well

In 2019, the JMM and its ally Congress had bagged 25 ST seats, which contributed to 47 seats for the alliance.

The JMM has traditionally enjoyed a strong grip over Jharkhand's tribal voters, mainly because of Hemant Soren's father Shibu Soren, the founder of JMM, who was instrumental in the state's creation. Hemant Soren reinforced the party's stand by supporting a domicile policy based on 1932 land records for government job eligibility. He also advocated recognising the Sarna religion, which is a separate identity sought by nature-worshipping tribals. Hemant Soren's ideas have derailed the BJP's plan to incorporate tribal groups under a broader Hindu identity.

As a 2019 poll issue, the JMM accused the Das government of initiating sedition charges against thousands of tribals, which led to massive resentment against the BJP government. In his 2019 poll promises, Hemant Soren assured that he would scrap all the cases registered against tribal protesters during the Pathalgadi movement in the state. He made good on the promise after coming to power.

Unlike the BJP, the JMM fought elections with allies, winning the trust of the alliance parties and their vote banks.

Hemant Soren's own following ensured that in South Chotanagpur, the JMM-Congress combine won eight seats out of 11 (four each) in the 2019 polls.

Seizing opportunity

Having failed to win any of the five ST Lok Sabha seats in the national election earlier this year, the BJP has a lot of homework to do. For the state election, the party is focusing on securing tribal-dominated seats by showcasing prominent tribal leaders, targeting a repeat of its 2014 performance when it won 11 out of 28 tribal seats.

The BJP will have to strive to replace the JMM's natural advantage among the tribals in the state and rely on its development narrative to wrest the state back from its rivals.

So, in the Kolhan region, where the BJP was completely wiped out in 2019, losing all 14 ST seats, the party is relying on three former tribal chief ministers - Champai Soren, Arjun Munda and Madhu Koda - to do the magic.

Champai Soren, who left the JMM to join the BJP in August, and his son Babulal, are contesting from Saraikela and Ghatshila. Madhu Koda, who had toppled the Arjun Munda-led government in 2006 to become chief minister, is now in the BJP camp along with the man he had once unseated. His wife Geeta and Munda's wife Meera are contesting from Jagannathpur and Potka, and are expected to improve the BJP's prospects in Kolhan. However, there is a note of caution. "Champai Soren's politics is confined to Santhal region and he has been a follower of Shibu Soren. He cannot influence beyond a couple of seats," says Pradeep Singh.

Both JMM and the NDA alliances realise the importance of women voters. In 32 out of the 81 Assembly seats, women outnumber male voters. This trend is even more pronounced in the 28 reserved seats. With this in mind, both the BJP and JMM are competing intensely to present the most attractive offers to women voters.